Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek)
Universe: MGK, PDBC, GLDM, BOND, VGLT, MINT, VCSH. Each month, compute 1/3/6/9 month returns per asset and average (25% each). Backtest max drawdown: -14.5%.
Strategy & methodology
Universe: MGK, PDBC, GLDM, BOND, VGLT, MINT, VCSH; Each month, compute 1/3/6/9 month returns per asset and average (25% each); Rank assets by composite return, select top 2; Assign Geometric Increasing weights: top-ranked 33.3%…
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Monthly
- Original publication:
- 2026; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-01.
Simulated history
Stand-in funds and until when (8)
- GLDM: GLD before Jun 26, 2018
- PDBC: DBC before Nov 7, 2014
- BOND: PTTAX before Mar 1, 2012
- VGLT: TLT before Nov 24, 2009
- VCSH: SHY x1.1 before Nov 23, 2009
- MINT: SHV before Nov 17, 2009
- MGK: VUG before Dec 27, 2007
- BOND: VBMFX before Mar 1, 2012
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Universe: MGK, PDBC, GLDM, BOND, VGLT, MINT, VCSH. Each month, compute 1/3/6/9 month returns per asset and average (25% each). Backtest max drawdown: -14.5%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The monthly signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version 964265ef, published 2026-10-01
Is Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) still working in 2026?
Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) returned 23.53% over the trailing 12 months and 99.66% over 36 months through 2026-10-01, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 11.86%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -14.51%. The full sample contains 8320 daily NAV observations from 1993-11-30. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-01 it is -0.52% below its high-water mark of 2026-09-24, 7 days ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 2.5 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 23.53% | Not annualized | -10.42% | 252 | 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-01 |
| Trailing 36 months | 99.66% | Not annualized | -14.15% | 754 | 2023-09-29 to 2026-10-01 |
| Full backtest | 3868.60% | 11.86% | -14.51% | 8320 | 1993-11-30 to 2026-10-01 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-09-24, 7 days before 2026-10-01, and it is -0.52% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 2.5 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) at a glance
Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Bill Sadek across US Mega-Cap Growth, Diversified Commodities, Gold, US Core Bonds, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1993-11-30 to 2026-10-01 (32.8 years): 11.9% CAGR, 1.18 Sharpe, -14.5% max drawdown, 11.2% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Bill Sadek
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Period
- 1993-11-30 to 2026-10-01
- CAGR
- 11.9%
- Sharpe
- 1.18
- Max Drawdown
- -14.5%
- Volatility
- 11.2%
Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Bill Sadek's Dynamic Macro Allocation model, contributed April 2026.
Each month, the 7-ETF macro universe (MGK mega-cap growth, PDBC diversified commodities, GLDM gold, BOND core bonds, VGLT long Treasury, MINT ultra-short bonds, VCSH short-term corporates) is scored using a composite momentum across four lookback periods (1, 3, 6 and 9 months) weighted 25% each. Unlike rank-order weighting (which Alpha-One uses), this strategy uses 'weight performance' which averages the actual returns across periods.
Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek): frequently asked questions
- What is Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek)?
- Bill Sadek's Dynamic Macro Allocation model. 7-ETF macro universe, multi-period performance-weighted momentum (1/3/6/9 months, 25% each), top-2 selection with Geometric Increasing weights (67%/33%), 6-month SMA trend filter per selected asset (failed assets move to cash). Monthly rebalance.
- Who created the Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) strategy?
- Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) was developed by Bill Sadek. It is based on Contributed by Bill Sadek (2026-04)..
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek)?
- Backtested from 1993-11-30 to 2026-10-01, Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) returned 11.9% CAGR with a -14.5% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.18. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) rebalanced?
- Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1993-11-30 to 2026-10-01)
| Metric | Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 11.9% |
| Max Drawdown | -14.5% |
| Sharpe | 1.18 |
| Sortino | 2.13 |
| Volatility | 11.2% |
| Calmar | 0.82 |
| Total Return | 3868.6% |
| Backtest Period | 32.8 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Variants
- 1
- Author
- Bill Sadek
- Source
- Contributed by Bill Sadek (2026-04).
Asset Classes
- US Mega-Cap Growth
- Diversified Commodities
- Gold
- US Core Bonds
- Long-Term Treasuries
- Ultra-Short Bonds
- Short-Term Corporates
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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