Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond]
1/3 each to three opposing pairs: SPY vs IEF, GLD vs TLT, VNQ vs IEF. Backtest max drawdown: -18.6%.
Strategy & methodology
1/3 each to three opposing pairs: SPY vs IEF, GLD vs TLT, VNQ vs IEF; Sleeve goes risk-on when the risk asset breaks its 6-month high (gold: 12-month); Sleeve turns defensive when it breaks its 12-month low (gold: 6-month); A defensive…
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Daily
- Original publication:
- 2011; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-01.
Simulated history
Stand-in funds and until when (5)
- VNQ: VGSIX before Sep 29, 2004
- TLT: VUSTX before Jul 26, 2002
- IEF: VFITX before Jul 26, 2002
- VNQ: FRESX before Sep 29, 2004
- SPY: VFINX before Jan 29, 1993
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
1/3 each to three opposing pairs: SPY vs IEF, GLD vs TLT, VNQ vs IEF. Backtest max drawdown: -18.6%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The daily signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version 9d67480b, published 2026-10-01
Is Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond] still working in 2026?
Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond] returned 7.69% over the trailing 12 months and 65.53% over 36 months through 2026-10-02, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 10.32%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -18.60%. The full sample contains 10422 daily NAV observations from 1985-11-06. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-02 it is -9.19% below its high-water mark of 2026-03-02, 7 months ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 2.6 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 7.69% | Not annualized | -12.30% | 252 | 2025-10-02 to 2026-10-02 |
| Trailing 36 months | 65.53% | Not annualized | -12.30% | 754 | 2023-10-02 to 2026-10-02 |
| Full backtest | 5447.61% | 10.32% | -18.60% | 10422 | 1985-11-06 to 2026-10-02 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-03-02, 7 months before 2026-10-02, and it is -9.19% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 2.6 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond] at a glance
Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond] is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Dick Stoken across US Equity, REITs, Gold, US Treasuries, rebalanced daily. Backtested 1985-11-06 to 2026-10-01 (40.9 years): 10.3% CAGR, 1.11 Sharpe, -18.6% max drawdown, 9.4% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Dick Stoken
- Rebalancing
- Daily
- Risk
- Conservative
- Period
- 1985-11-06 to 2026-10-01
- CAGR
- 10.3%
- Sharpe
- 1.11
- Max Drawdown
- -18.6%
- Volatility
- 9.4%
Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond] — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Dick Stoken's Active Combined Asset (ACA) runs three equal-weight opposing pairs: US stocks vs intermediate Treasuries (SPY/IEF), gold vs long Treasuries (GLD/TLT), and REITs vs intermediate Treasuries (VNQ/IEF). Each pair is switched by a daily Donchian-style price channel: the sleeve goes risk-on when the risk asset closes above its highest close of the recent lookback window, switches to the defensive asset when it closes below its lowest close of the longer window, and holds its current position between the channels (hysteresis).
The lookbacks are deliberately asymmetric. Equities and REITs use a 6-month upper channel and a 12-month lower channel (easy entry, hard exit, a bullish bias), while gold uses the reverse (hard entry, easy exit, reflecting its defensive role).
Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond]: frequently asked questions
- What is Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond]?
- Checks its signals every trading day and trades only when a pair switches. Three equal-weight pairs (stocks/bonds, gold/bonds, REITs/bonds) switch via price channel breakouts with asymmetric lookbacks. Dynamic bond variant can move to cash if bonds also fail their channel. Averages ~3 trades/year.
- Who created the Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond] strategy?
- Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond] was developed by Dick Stoken. It is based on Stoken, D. Survival of the Fittest for Investors (McGraw-Hill).
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond]?
- Backtested from 1985-11-06 to 2026-10-01, Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond] returned 10.3% CAGR with a -18.6% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.11. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond] rebalanced?
- Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond] is rebalanced daily. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond] a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond] is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1985-11-06 to 2026-10-01)
| Metric | Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond] |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 10.3% |
| Max Drawdown | -18.6% |
| Sharpe | 1.11 |
| Sortino | 1.90 |
| Volatility | 9.4% |
| Calmar | 0.55 |
| Total Return | 5431.1% |
| Backtest Period | 40.9 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- daily
- Risk Level
- conservative
- Variants
- 4
- Author
- Dick Stoken
- Source
- Stoken, D. Survival of the Fittest for Investors (McGraw-Hill)
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- REITs
- Gold
- US Treasuries
- Cash
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
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