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Drawdown history

XLF observed max drawdown: 78.7%

Financial Select Sector SPDR. From its 2007-05-31 peak, XLF fell 78.7% to the 2009-02-28 trough and needed 10.2 years to make a new high (2017-07-31). Computed from 333 months of observed fund history. Fund inception boundary (first available fund observation): 1998-12-22; the monthly analysis runs from 1998-12-31 through 2026-08-31.

Before 1998-12-22, the extended history is simulated. Observed fund drawdowns come first; simulation assumptions and results are separated below.

What is XLF's observed maximum drawdown?

XLF's observed maximum drawdown was 78.7%, from a peak in 2007-05-31 to a trough in 2009-02-28, based on monthly closes from fund prices first observed on 1998-12-22. The sample contains 333 monthly observations through 2026-08-31. Monthly closes can miss deeper daily losses.

XLF: observed fund prices, monthly closes
MeasureValue
Maximum drawdown-78.7%
Peak2007-05-31
Trough2009-02-28
Recovered2017-07-31
Monthly observations333

Last verified

What is XLF's observed maximum drawdown?

XLF's observed maximum drawdown was 78.7%, from a peak in 2007-05-31 to a trough in 2009-02-28, based on monthly closes from fund prices first observed on 1998-12-22.

How long did XLF take to recover from its worst drawdown?

XLF took 10.2 years from the 2007-05-31 peak to make a new high in 2017-07-31, based only on observed fund prices.

What was XLF's worst 12-month return?

XLF's worst observed rolling 12-month return was -69.4%, in the 12 months ending 2009-02-28.

XLF observed fund drawdown statistics

Maximum drawdown
-78.7%

2007-05-31 peak to 2009-02-28 trough.

Recovery time
10.2 years

New high reached 2017-07-31.

Time underwater
82.9%

Share of all months spent below a prior high.

Worst 12 months
-69.4%

Rolling year ending 2009-02-28.

The biggest XLF drawdowns in observed fund history

DepthPeakTroughRecoveredPeak to troughTotal underwater
-78.7%2007-05-312009-02-282017-07-3121 mo10.2 years
-31.8%2019-12-312020-03-312021-02-283 mo14 months
-27.9%2000-12-312002-09-302003-12-3121 mo3.0 years
-23.1%2021-10-312022-09-302024-01-3111 mo2.3 years
-22.1%1999-04-302000-02-292000-08-3110 mo16 months

Methodology: observed XLF fund prices only, first available from 1998-12-22. Monthly closing-price statistics cover 1998-12-31 through 2026-08-31; no proxy or pre-inception simulation is included in this table. Educational information, not investment advice.

Hypothetical, not observed

Before 1998-12-22: simulated from the underlying index with assumptions

This separate series combines observed prices with a modeled pre-inception extension from 1981-12-31 through 2026-09-30. The 2026-09-30 endpoint is the legacy current partial-month bucket/month-end label, not evidence that XLF was observed through that future date. It is not observed XLF performance. The API's observed boundary is 1998-12-22; observed monthly statistics run from 1998-12-31 through 2026-08-31.

  • Rebalancing convention: monthly rebalance at month-end close; drawdown statistics use monthly closing prices.
  • Proxy source for XLF: FIDSX (proxy_etf), from 1981-12-10 to 1998-12-21.
  • Proxy source for SPY: VFINX (proxy_etf), from 1976-08-31 to 1993-01-28.
  • Proxy source for SPY: spy_tr (static_monthly), from 1900-01-31 to 1976-08-30.

Modeled extended statistics

Maximum drawdown
-78.7%

2007-05-31 peak to 2009-02-28 trough.

Recovery time
10.2 years

New high reached 2017-07-31.

Time underwater
74.4%

Share of all months spent below a prior high.

Worst 12 months
-69.4%

Rolling year ending 2009-02-28.

For context, SPY (the S&P 500 baseline) had a maximum drawdown of 50.8% over the same kind of monthly-close analysis.

Modeled extended drawdowns

DepthPeakTroughRecoveredPeak to troughTotal underwater
-78.7%2007-05-312009-02-282017-07-3121 mo10.2 years
-46.9%1989-09-301990-10-311991-10-3113 mo2.1 years
-32.5%1986-06-301987-12-311989-08-3118 mo3.2 years
-31.8%2019-12-312020-03-312021-02-283 mo14 months
-27.9%2000-12-312002-09-302003-12-3121 mo3.0 years

Monthly closing prices, peak-to-trough on total return where available. The pre-inception segment is a reconstruction, not a live fund record, and actual tracking, financing, taxes, spreads, and volatility drag can differ.

Drawdowns are the reason tactical strategies exist

Buy-and-hold XLF means living through every number on this page. BestFolio tracks published TAA strategies whose whole job is cutting these drawdowns, with out-of-sample track records.