TLT observed max drawdown: 47.6%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. From its 2020-07-31 peak, TLT fell 47.6% to the 2023-10-31 trough and has not yet made a new high. Computed from 291 months of observed fund history. Fund inception boundary (first available fund observation): 2002-07-26; the monthly analysis runs from 2002-07-31 through 2026-09-30.
Before 2002-07-26, the extended history is simulated. Observed fund drawdowns come first; simulation assumptions and results are separated below.
What is TLT's observed maximum drawdown?
TLT's observed maximum drawdown was 47.6%, from a peak in 2020-07-31 to a trough in 2023-10-31, based on monthly closes from fund prices first observed on 2002-07-26. The sample contains 291 monthly observations through 2026-09-30. Monthly closes can miss deeper daily losses.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Maximum drawdown | -47.6% |
| Peak | 2020-07-31 |
| Trough | 2023-10-31 |
| Recovered | Not yet recovered |
| Monthly observations | 291 |
Last verified
What is TLT's observed maximum drawdown?
TLT's observed maximum drawdown was 47.6%, from a peak in 2020-07-31 to a trough in 2023-10-31, based on monthly closes from fund prices first observed on 2002-07-26.
How long did TLT take to recover from its worst drawdown?
TLT has not yet recovered from its worst observed drawdown, which began at the 2020-07-31 peak.
What was TLT's worst 12-month return?
TLT's worst observed rolling 12-month return was -33.6%, in the 12 months ending 2022-10-31.
TLT observed fund drawdown statistics
2020-07-31 peak to 2023-10-31 trough.
Still below the prior peak.
Share of all months spent below a prior high.
Rolling year ending 2022-10-31.
The biggest TLT drawdowns in observed fund history
| Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Peak to trough | Total underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -47.6% | 2020-07-31 | 2023-10-31 | not yet | 39 mo | 6.2 years |
| -21.8% | 2008-12-31 | 2009-12-31 | 2011-09-30 | 12 mo | 2.8 years |
| -18.0% | 2012-07-31 | 2013-12-31 | 2014-11-30 | 17 mo | 2.3 years |
| -15.1% | 2016-07-31 | 2018-10-31 | 2019-05-31 | 27 mo | 2.8 years |
| -14.1% | 2015-01-31 | 2015-06-30 | 2016-06-30 | 5 mo | 17 months |
Methodology: observed TLT fund prices only, first available from 2002-07-26. Monthly closing-price statistics cover 2002-07-31 through 2026-09-30; no proxy or pre-inception simulation is included in this table. Educational information, not investment advice.
Before 2002-07-26: simulated from the underlying index with assumptions
This separate series combines observed prices with a modeled pre-inception extension from 1970-01-31 through 2026-10-31. The 2026-10-31 endpoint is the legacy current partial-month bucket/month-end label, not evidence that TLT was observed through that future date. It is not observed TLT performance. The API's observed boundary is 2002-07-26; observed monthly statistics run from 2002-07-31 through 2026-09-30.
- Rebalancing convention: monthly rebalance at month-end close; drawdown statistics use monthly closing prices.
- Proxy source for TLT: VUSTX (proxy_etf), from 1986-05-19 to 2002-07-25.
- Proxy source for TLT: us_30yr (static_monthly), from 1920-01-31 to 1986-05-16.
- Proxy source for SPY: VFINX (proxy_etf), from 1987-01-06 to 1993-01-28.
- Proxy source for SPY: SP500_TR_DAILY (static), from 1976-08-31 to 1987-01-05.
- Proxy source for SPY: spy_tr (static_monthly), from 1900-01-31 to 1976-08-30.
Modeled extended statistics
2020-07-31 peak to 2023-10-31 trough.
Still below the prior peak.
Share of all months spent below a prior high.
Rolling year ending 2022-10-31.
For context, SPY (the S&P 500 baseline) had a maximum drawdown of 50.8% over the same kind of monthly-close analysis.
Modeled extended drawdowns
| Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Peak to trough | Total underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -47.6% | 2020-07-31 | 2023-10-31 | not yet | 39 mo | 6.3 years |
| -23.2% | 1979-06-30 | 1981-09-30 | 1982-08-31 | 27 mo | 3.2 years |
| -23.1% | 1972-12-31 | 1974-09-30 | 1976-10-31 | 21 mo | 3.8 years |
| -21.8% | 2008-12-31 | 2009-12-31 | 2011-09-30 | 12 mo | 2.8 years |
| -18.0% | 2012-07-31 | 2013-12-31 | 2014-11-30 | 17 mo | 2.3 years |
Monthly closing prices, peak-to-trough on total return where available. The pre-inception segment is a reconstruction, not a live fund record, and actual tracking, financing, taxes, spreads, and volatility drag can differ.
Drawdowns are the reason tactical strategies exist
Buy-and-hold TLT means living through every number on this page. BestFolio tracks published TAA strategies whose whole job is cutting these drawdowns, with out-of-sample track records.